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Scenario: You and your fellow team members from the United States Geological Survey’s Volcano Monitoring Program have been sent to a new volcano in Faklandia to determine whether a stratovolcano that has shown signs of unrest is ready to explosively erupt. Approximately one year ago there was a magnitude 7.8 earthquake close by, and two weeks ago steam exploded out of the north flank of the volcano. Local residents are concerned because the volcano has not erupted in more than 500 years and the recent activity is scaring them.

Your job is to ensure that all local residents are evacuated if the volcano is going to erupt. You have two responsibilities in this process: 1) Daily Hazard Level Forecasts and 2) Evacuation orders . Every day at 5 pm you will announce a Hazard Level Forecast (see below) based on four sets of daily observations and measurements on the volcano. Your Hazard Level will convey the risk of eruption to the local residents

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